Jim McCormick
The NBA playoffs march on Saturday with Game 3 of the Western Conference finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Thunder dominated Game 2 at home, thanks to a 38-point performance from league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC now heads to Target Center to face Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves up 2-0 in the series.
The Thunder are the favorites to win the NBA Finals, followed by the Indiana Pacers, pulled away late to win Game 2 over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden Friday night.
Here are four bets to consider for Saturday night’s game.
Note: Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Bets that stand out for Saturday’s game
Julius Randle over 18.5 points (-110)
My first inclination was to fade Randle’s passing production, as the Thunder have sealed off passing angles when the big man tries to set up shop in the post. The result has been a big drop in both potential and realized assists. The market figured that one out, lowering Randle’s assist prop to just 4.5, shifting my interest to his ability to bully on the block and become a scoring force. Call it the every-other-game theory, but Randle is due to convert down low in a matchup that has already removed a good deal of his distribution success.
Jalen Williams over 5.5 rebounds (-140)
The price on this isn’t ideal, but the potential to clear this prop is undeniably inviting. Williams has averaged 13.2 rebounding opportunities over his past five outings, just shy of Isaiah Hartenstein (13.4) and Chet Holmgren (15.8). This recent rise in actual rebounding production is supported by more reliable opportunity rates. Simply put, the playoffs have meant more minutes for Williams and more time cleaning up and crashing on offense. Betting on Williams’ passing, rebounding and even scoring props could prove rewarding.
Naz Reid to make 3+ 3-pointers (+175)
Reid’s potential to produce from beyond is interesting. He has been getting enough minutes and looks to deliver dynamic, but his shot didn’t fall in Oklahoma. He is due for positive regression and likely to play big minutes against a Thunder team that often runs out large lineups. The plus odds on this unique bet add some entertainment to a must-win game for Minnesota.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 7.5 points (-125)
Alexander-Walker’s length and foot speed are in high demand. While he is on the floor often primarily for defensive reasons, such exposure naturally leads to more offensive reps. In fact, Alexander-Walker has surpassed this scoring number in every matchup against the Thunder this season. Facing OKC’s capable two-way wings helps fuel an important two-way role for Alexander-Walker, thus the interest in his offensive output.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Thunder -2.5 (-115) | Timberwolves 2.5 (-105)
Money line: Thunder -150 | Timberwolves +130
Total: 218.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 5.3, straight up 67%, 215.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Nikola Topic, (OFS – Knee)
Timberwolves: None reported
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