Zach Kram
Although the NBA’s 2025-26 Eastern Conference race looks wide open due to a rash of star injuries, the West picture takes on a different tone. There, a mass of hopeful contenders must chase down the champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who won the West by a record 16 games last season and have a sustainable roster built to repeat.
But which rivals have the best chance to catch Oklahoma City? Which veteran-laden teams hope to stay sufficiently spry for another deep playoff run? And which young teams might rise rapidly up the standings?
To take a broad overview and analyze the initial state of the 2025-26 Western Conference field, we’ve sorted all 15 teams into five tiers. Tomorrow, we’ll go through a similar exercise with the East, but for now, let’s stay out West, starting with the obvious favorite with a great chance at making history.
Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite
Outside of rostering 2024 first-round pick Nikola Topic, the Thunder haven’t added any new players via trade or free agency — but why would they need to? The defending champs already had the league’s deepest rotation. And they will presumably only get better in 2025-26, as 31-year-old Alex Caruso and 30-year-old Kenrich Williams are the only players older than 27, and Chet Holmgren played just 32 games last season due to injury.
Better than winning the title after a 68-win regular season and the best point differential in NBA history? Yes, it’s not only possible but realistic. As they attempt to become the first back-to-back champions since the Durant-era Warriors, which would snap a record-long streak without a repeat winner, the Thunder are in a class of their own.
Tier 2: Ready to deny a repeat champ
1:09
Shams: The goal for KD and Rockets is for him to retire in Houston
Shams Charania says that both Kevin Durant and the Rockets want the star to finish his career in Houston.
The Rockets were something of a paper tiger in 2024-25: They earned the No. 2 seed in the West with a tireless regular-season effort, but they didn’t have the star power necessary to do damage in the postseason, leading to a first-round exit against the Golden State Warriors. But after trading for Kevin Durant and signing Dorian Finney-Smith, with Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard set to take on bigger roles, the Rockets have a complete team with the requisite depth and star power to threaten the Thunder.
Houston still doesn’t have as much top-end talent as the champs, but it also doesn’t have any real weaknesses. Don’t be surprised if the Rockets land the No. 2 seed again but look more playoff-ready while doing so. This tiger looks real.
The Nuggets’ general structure remains the same as it has for years: Nikola Jokic leads the way, with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon providing support. But there have also been plenty of recent changes in Denver: There’s a new coach, a new front office and a newly competent bench, after Denver added Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and — if he doesn’t return to Europe instead — Jonas Valanciunas. Cameron Johnson also takes Michael Porter Jr.’s place as the knockdown shooter in the starting lineup after switching teams this offseason.
If not for an unexpected barrage of Luguentz Dort 3-pointers, the Nuggets very well could have upset the Thunder in the second round this spring. They’ve since reloaded for another chance next season.
Anthony Edwards‘ continued ascent will be the main factor determining whether Minnesota can return to the conference finals for the third straight season, and ideally improve upon the past two trips by advancing to the Finals this time. But much also rests on the Timberwolves’ guard play beyond Edwards. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone to Atlanta, the rest of Minnesota’s backcourt rotation includes Mike Conley, who will celebrate his 38th birthday before the season begins; the streaky Donte DiVincenzo; and rising sophomores Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. The duo combined to average just 8.8 points in 81 games during their rookie seasons together.
There’s promise here but also potential peril. The Timberwolves tried to hold their ground in the offseason by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid, but it’s hard to argue they improved. Meanwhile, the other teams in this tier made unimpeachable upgrades in their quest to catch the Thunder, and might have passed Minnesota in the process.
Tier 3: The old guard
0:57
Why the Clippers traded Norman Powell, added John Collins
Ohm Youngmisuk breaks down the Clippers’ reasoning for giving up Norman Powell in a trade that landed John Collins in Los Angeles.
The Clippers should arguably place one tier higher in this ranking. Kawhi Leonard played his first game last season on Jan. 4, and from then on, the Clippers ranked second in the West with a plus-7.2 net rating. They even outscored Denver in a seven-game series loss in the first round, but two two-point losses, as well as a lackluster showing in Game 7, doomed the sleeper contender.
The good news for the Clippers is that Brook Lopez enters from Milwaukee as an underrated addition, solving the backup center problem behind Ivica Zubac, and every key player from the 2024-25 team will be back in 2025-26, except for Norman Powell, whom LA traded for John Collins on Monday. The bad news is that Leonard and James Harden, plus role players Lopez, Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic, are all in their 30s, so it’s fair to wonder whether the Clippers missed their chance last season.
Any team with Luka Doncic or LeBron James, let alone both, is automatically a contender. But do the Lakers have a sufficiently strong supporting cast to contend? There are some big, challenging questions here: Can lineups with Doncic, James and Austin Reaves hold their own on the defensive end? Will new starting center Deandre Ayton, fresh off a buyout, play with more force and reverse his multiyear decline? Can Jake LaRavia replace Finney-Smith? Is there enough shooting on this roster?
Expect the Lakers’ drama to continue until they can firmly answer these questions.
The Warriors have been remarkably inactive this offseason, and they’re in something of a holding pattern as they wait for free agent Al Horford to make a decision, while Jonathan Kuminga‘s restricted free agency resolves. For now, they’re in a similar position to how they ended last season: a very good team, especially with Jimmy Butler III in the fold, but not a dominant one. Depending on how the rest of the offseason unfolds, they could jump up a tier — remember, they might have made the conference finals last season if Stephen Curry hadn’t been injured in Game 1 of the second round — but they haven’t yet done anything to warrant that better placement.
Cooper Flagg doesn’t belong in the old guard, and the 18-year-old No. 1 pick represents the greatest reason to be excited about the Mavericks. But a team led by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (once he returns from his torn ACL), with Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell starting in the backcourt, still qualifies for old guard designation.
The larger question about the Mavericks is whether they have enough playmaking — whether Flagg can handle point forward duties as a rookie, whether the streaky Russell will get hot and, most of all, whether Irving will return at full strength or require another year to get back up to speed.
Tier 4: Young and hungry
1:20
Dylan Harper ‘ready to get in there’ with the San Antonio Spurs
Dylan Harper speaks to Monica McNutt after being selected by the Spurs with the 2nd pick.
Trading Desmond Bane turned out to be more of a one-off adjustment than the start of a full-blown rebuild. Memphis followed up that surprising deal by signing Ty Jerome, trading up to draft Cedric Coward (a potential Bane replacement) and extending both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama. There’s still a lot of depth and talent on this roster.
But without Bane, the best of that talent is now concentrated at point guard and center. To avoid taking a step back, the Grizzlies need either Coward to excel as a rookie, Jaylen Wells to take a big leap in his second season or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to bounce back after a down season in Orlando.
De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama shared the court for just five games last season, in the narrow gap between the former’s trade to San Antonio and the latter’s diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis, which ended Wembanyama’s standout second season prematurely. Add in No. 2 pick Dylan Harper and reigning Rookie of the Year winner Stephon Castle, and it’s clear the Spurs still have a great deal of self-discovery ahead.
In all likelihood, then, this will be a transition season for San Antonio as it starts to figure out its identity and how its players fit together. After landing the No. 2 pick, the Spurs notably didn’t chase win-now moves like a trade for Durant. But they also might have more potential for a rapid rise in 2025-26, thanks to Wemby, who’s favored to win Defensive Player of the Year and make an All-NBA team.
Last season, the Trail Blazers went 13-28 in the first half of their schedule, then 23-18 in the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as two-way contributors. And by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to a starting role — a move that included buying out Ayton — Portland affirmed and strengthened its defensive identity this summer.
It’s unclear whether the Simons-less Blazers have enough offensive juice to rise into the play-in ranks, and they’ll be counting on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to show more growth in the backcourt. But for the team with the West’s second-longest playoff drought — only the Spurs’ is longer — things are looking up in Portland.
Tier 5: What’s the plan?
1:30
Stephen A. on Suns’ draft night: ‘What on earth are the Phoenix Suns doing?’
Stephen A. Smith reacts to the Suns drafting center Khaman Maluach and trading for center Mark Williams on draft night.
In 1,121 possessions with Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine sharing the floor last season, the Kings had an offensive rating of 117.4, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s a solid mark, ranking in the 72nd percentile of all lineups leaguewide. But in those same possessions, the Kings had a 120.9 defensive rating, which ranked in the 11th percentile. The Kings have stars, and they’re often entertaining — but they don’t have a realistic path toward consistently winning games. Maybe they’d compete for a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference, but they’re not good enough in the West.
“What’s the plan?” has been a fair question to ask Phoenix for a while now, and this offseason hasn’t offered any meaningful clarification. The Suns didn’t get a great return when trading Durant, while simultaneously adding two centers on draft night and still lacking any natural point guards or power forwards in their projected rotation. Devin Booker and Jalen Green could make for a very awkward fit as a starting backcourt.
Expect the Suns, led by owner Mat Ishbia, to keep sacrificing the future to try to compete in the present. But don’t expect too many actual wins.
One suspects the Pelicans would place themselves in a different tier, given the aggression with which they approached their offseason moves, most notably trading an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up 10 spots in the 2025 draft. And there is some reason for hope — mainly, if the Pelicans can enjoy better health after Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones combined for just 103 games last season.
But with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram gone and Dejounte Murray out with a torn Achilles, there’s also a lot of flux in New Orleans, with no clear long-term plan to build a winning roster. Even in the short term, it’s not as if the Pelicans were world-beaters in their rare moments of health last season, as they finished 10-20 when Williamson played, with a minus-4.3 net rating when Williamson and Murphy shared the floor.
On the one hand, Lauri Markkanen is still in Utah. The team wanted to add Jusuf Nurkic. And new president of basketball operations Austin Ainge said in his introductory news conference, when asked about tanking, “You won’t see that this year.”
Yet on the other hand, Utah shed John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton this summer for minimal return; drafted an 18-year-old project in Ace Bailey; and is projected to play the youngest backcourt in the league. The Jazz could try not to tank and still lose 60-plus games this season, given their own deficiencies and the broad strength across the rest of the West.
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