Brian Windhorst
The NBA transaction season has officially arrived, kicked off with the Orlando Magic acquiring their first player in a trade in more than five years when they landed Desmond Bane this week. The intrigue created by this opening trade will only increase until the start of free agency, 6 p.m. ET on June 30.
But it’s quite possible most of the impactful moves will happen before then — during or shortly after the draft on June 25-26. There isn’t much cap space out there — there’s a logjam that is expected to clear by summer 2026 — and the free agent class is shallow on star players.
Here are five of the biggest storylines — and 12 impact players — that will shape the 2025 offseason.
MORE: Latest buzz, trades, signings | Grades | Offseason guides
Will Giannis stay settled in Milwaukee?
The potential frenzy that could’ve surrounded Giannis Antetokounmpo around the draft has been muted.
The Bucks are, for the moment, committed to staying the course and trying to construct a competitive team for next season with the hope Damian Lillard can return by the postseason.
Antetokounmpo, for his part, left the country for his offseason without showing his hand, which has created a bit of an uneasy stalemate between the franchise superstar and his team.
In the meantime, the Bucks have a handful of free agents to deal with, including center Brook Lopez and key reserve Bobby Portis, if he opts out of his contract.
There would be interest in Lopez and Portis elsewhere on the market, but the Bucks, with full Bird Rights for both, are in a strong position to keep both if they prioritize it. And Milwaukee seems ready to, believing Antetokounmpo will remain.
Either way, potential suitors for Antetokounmpo, who ESPN’s Shams Charania reports remains undecided about his future, are left to decide whether to hedge, keeping their powder dry in the event Antetokounmpo decides to request a trade later in the summer.
There’s certainly precedent for that. Over the years, a handful of blockbusters happened well after the draft and free agency, including landscape-shifting deals involving Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, Kyrie Irving, Lillard, Karl-Anthony Towns and Dwight Howard, just to name a few.
But there is also the risk of waiting for a derby that may never get out of the starting blocks.
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The complicated Kevin Durant triangle
When Brian Gregory had his introductory news conference as the Phoenix Suns’ general manager last month, he used some version of the word “alignment” 23 times as he stressed his plans to be in lock step with ownership and his coach.
Aligning with Durant, though, might prove to not be such a priority.
There are three angles the parties are considering in the trade discussions.
It must be a deal the Suns actually want to do, no small feat for an outrageously expensive team mired in a web of complicated, punitive second-apron trade rules.
It must be a destination Durant wants. And, lastly, there’s the question of whether he’ll sign an extension — he is eligible for an additional two years and $120M. If he’s dealt to a team that isn’t on his list — which reportedly includes Miami, Houston and San Antonio — will he be willing to sign?
If he won’t commit to staying long term in a place like, for example, Minnesota, would the Wolves be willing to trade for him anyway?
The range and strength of offers change significantly depending on whether there’s certainty of Durant extending. That could affect how motivated the Suns are to trade him before the draft.
While it was their plan and their preference to do so, it’s not necessarily a reason to accept a deal they aren’t thrilled with.
So if this triangle doesn’t slip into that desired alignment and no one folds, would Phoenix just take him off the trade market?
Will stars opt out? Will their teams try to bargain?
LeBron James has a $53 million player option with a coveted no-trade clause. James Harden has a $36 million player option and is coming off an All-Star season. Kyrie Irving might miss the bulk of next season recovering from a torn ACL. He has a player option for $43 million. Julius Randle has a $31 million player option and just had a strong playoff run for the Wolves.
A year or two ago it would have been largely assumed these players would automatically opt out, even a star like Irving, who is dealing with a major injury.
But with (some) teams being more judicious as they navigate that apron world, those decisions are far less certain.
With a dearth of cap space this summer, it becomes a game of whether teams want to negotiate against themselves.
James, Harden and Irving likely aren’t going anywhere, and Randle, depending on what happens with Durant, might find his best offer ends up being in Minnesota as well.
But their teams know this and could play hardball, which could lead to some players, including those not on this list, just opting in and being on one-year contracts.
That’s a situation Durant could also find himself in, depending on how his situation plays out.
The fallacy of 15 Western Conference teams competing for the playoffs
When the Utah Jazz recently named Austin Ainge their new team president he was asked — after three years of varying degrees of tanking that included a $100,000 fine last season for violating the NBA’s player participation policy regarding sidelining Lauri Markkanen — whether the team would be tanking again, he responded simply: “You won’t see that this year.”
Well, that does it.
The Portland Trail Blazers finished the season 23-18 after starting 13-28, getting coach Chauncey Billups and general manager Joe Cronin contract extensions. The New Orleans Pelicans had players miss a collective 208 games, and the San Antonio Spurs had players miss a combined 385, leaving them expecting/hoping to have bounce-back seasons next year.
So if the Jazz, too, are “in” for next season — as much as they can be with their current roster — that means all 15 Western Conference teams are theoretically “trying” to win in 2025-26.
This is preposterous and not based in reality.
The Memphis Grizzlies appear to know this, as they are the first team in the West to evaluate the landscape and become a first-moving trader. They got a great haul for sending Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic, primarily for draft picks.
Are all these West teams really going to be acquiring/holding? No way. Will another team(s) join the Grizzlies in making a trade to unload talent?
Very likely.
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Free agency as ‘extension-agency’
With the changes to the collective bargaining agreement, plus a lack of salary cap space and big-name free agents, the drama this summer could largely be whether players extend their contracts with their teams. If they do, great. If they don’t, well, rumors about their futures will increase.
Here are some players who can sign huge new contracts this summer (or won’t):
Luka Dončić, Lakers: On Aug. 2, he can add four years and $229 million to his deal. But he could (and it might financially be smarter to) also sign for $165 million over three years with a chance to opt out in 2028.
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: For the past decade, Jokic has been a dream megastar — no stress, all production, MVP, champion. He has three years left, so there’s no real need to extend now, but he could add two years. Though the past two seasons have ended without a return to the Finals and the Nuggets have let quite a bit of talent go out the door, he hasn’t given any indication that he’s not satisfied with the team. So no reason not to sign for more years, right?
De’Aaron Fox, Spurs: On Aug. 3, Fox can sign for four years and $229 million and, after trading three first-round picks for him this past February, expect the Spurs to do so.
Devin Booker, Suns: The four-time All-Star can add two years and $150 million (not a typo, that’s $75 million per season) after July 6, and all signs point toward it happening. Doing so gets him under contract in Phoenix through 2030.
Trae Young, Hawks: He can sign for up to four years and $229 million, but after four straight years in the play-in tournament, and with a new front office, it’s not certain the Hawks will offer it.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks: Towns had a great first year in New York, but has three years left on his deal. This isn’t a referendum, but he could opt out of the last year and add a fresh three years and $212 million to have him under contract for the next five.
Ja Morant, Grizzlies: The 25-year-old guard has three years left on his deal, and could add two more. But he has also averaged just 44 games a season over the past four years because of injury and suspension, and the Grizzlies have routinely underachieved with him as the franchise face.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies: Memphis can use its cap space to renegotiate and extend Jackson — and the team is trying to do just that. He has one year left on a team-friendly deal at $23 million.
Tyler Herro, Heat: Coming off his best season, in October he can sign for up to $150 million over three years. Herro might not quite meet the criteria for getting that size of a contract, depending on whom you ask, and there’s a chance the Heat will look to get him into something worth less. He’s got one year left on his deal and if there’s no new contract, he’ll see his name in trade rumors.
Kristaps Porzingis, Celtics: Going into the last year of his contract, and making $30.7 million, he is in position for a new contract. But the Celtics are already very expensive and facing an uncertain future with new ownership coming, and Porzingis’ injury history could complicate coming to an agreeable number.
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