Opening night of the 2025-26 NBA regular season is more than two months away, with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder hosting ring night against the Houston Rockets on Oct. 21.
But it is never too early to look ahead to the storylines that will dominate the 2026 offseason. That includes the futures of superstars LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, the 2026 draft and whether the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers can return to championship contender status after injuries to franchise players. Plus, with the help of ESPN NBA draft insider Jeremy Woo, we’re taking an early look at the prospects rebuilding teams could be chasing next June.
Here are the top 10 questions that could define the summer of 2026.
How will extensions signed this summer impact next year’s free agent class?
Within 72 hours this month, Mikal Bridges, Luka Doncic and De’Aaron Fox signed long-term extensions. A month earlier, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jakob Poeltl, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams did the same. Each of those nine players could have been free agents next summer.
Two names that are not on the above list but are extension eligible are Trae Young and Kevin Durant.
Young is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension up until June 30 or a five-year, $345 million super max extension if he is named All-NBA this season. If an extension is not reached, Young could become a free agent next summer — but only if he declines his $49 million player option for 2026-27.
The Hawks improved this offseason by trading for Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, signing Luke Kennard and drafting Asa Newell. Atlanta has the fourth-best odds to win the Eastern Conference, per ESPN BET. Young’s teammate Dyson Daniels is also eligible to sign an extension. Daniels was named All-Defense first team in 2024-25 and can sign a new contract up until Oct. 20.
Durant has been eligible to sign a two-year, $118 million extension with the Rockets since July 6. The Rockets have $143 million in committed salary next season, well below the projected $222.3 million second apron threshold. Houston’s salaries for next season, however, do not include Durant and Tari
Eason, who is one of 17 players that are rookie extension eligible. In the past two offseasons, 25 players have signed rookie extensions and bypassed restricted free agency. (Other potential free agents who could sign extensions before or during the season include Mitchell Robinson, Zach LaVine, P.J. Washington, Coby White and AJ Green.)
Where will LeBron James play in 2026-27?
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The only guarantee is James will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, and if he does play an unprecedented 24th season, it will likely be with a team that can win a championship.
Free agency next offseason is looming because James opted into his $52.6 million player option for this season. This is the first time in his career that the 40-year old is not under contract for an upcoming season — every contract was either guaranteed or a player option) or eligible to sign an extension.
As his longtime agent Rich Paul stated when James opted-in, winning a championship at this point of his career is a priority.
“He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all,” Paul told ESPN’s Shams Charania in June. “We are very appreciative of the partnership that we’ve had for eight years with Jeanie [Buss] and Rob [Pelinka] and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career.
“We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what’s best for him.”
Whether that is with the Lakers or another team next year is still to be determined.
Besides James, who are the next best free agents?
The list of 39 potential free agents that range from franchise to starter will surely change by next June.
Of those players, including Kevin Durant, James Harden, Trae Young and Christian Braun, either have a player or team option, are a restricted free agent or are extension eligible. James is the only player we know will be a free agent.
However, as ESPN’s Dave McMenamin reported in late June, all signs indicate that James’ teammate, Austin Reaves, will join him in free agency, as he declined a four-year, $89.2 million extension, the maximum allowed.
In the summer of 2026, Reaves will be eligible to sign a four-year, $98 million extension, or he can opt out of the final year of his contract, become an unrestricted free agent and be eligible for 25% of whatever the salary cap is for 2026-27.
The top players who could become free agents next summer include (P: Player option; T: Team option; R: Restricted):
Franchise player: LeBron James
All-NBA: Kevin Durant
All-Star: James Harden (P), Trae Young (P)
Top starter: Bradley Beal (P), Christian Braun (R), Toumani Camara (R), Dyson Daniels (R), Lu Dort (T), Draymond Green (P), Walker Kessler (R), Zach LaVine (P), Keegan Murray (R), Norman Powell, Austin Reaves (P) and Coby White
Starter level: Deandre Ayton (P), Harrison Barnes, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (P), John Collins, Mike Conley, Jalen Duren (R), Tari Eason (R), Rui Hachimura, Tobias Harris, Isaiah Hartenstein (T), Jaden Ivey (R), CJ McCollum, Khris Middleton, Jusuf Nurkic, Kristaps Porzingis, Collin Sexton, Shaedon Sharpe (R), Anfernee Simons, Fred VanVleet (P), Nikola Vucevic, P.J. Washington, Andrew Wiggins (P) and Mark Williams (R)
The 2026 free agent class could get a boost if current restricted free agents Jonathan Kuminga, Cam Thomas, Quentin Grimes and Josh Giddey sign the one-year qualifying offer before Oct. 1. They would be unrestricted in 2026 if they take the one-year contract.
How does Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry impact the 2027 summer?
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These multiple-time MVPs are not free agents in 2026 but could be in 2027 if they do not sign extensions next summer.
As Charania reported in August, Antetokounmpo continues to weigh his future in Milwaukee, “There have been some ‘very real’ conversations between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in the last week concerning Antetokounmpo’s future with the team. Giannis Antetokounmpo is mulling over whether or not the current Bucks roster can win a championship.”
The Bucks exhausted their options this offseason: waiving and stretching Damian Lillard and then signing center Myles Turner, Gary Harris and re-signing Bobby Portis, Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Chris Livingston and Jericho Sims.
“We’ve done everything, I’ve done everything within my human possible power this offseason,” Bucks GM Jon Horst told The Athletic in July.
Antetokounmpo has a $62.8 million player option in 2027-28 and is allowed to extend for an additional four-years and $293 million next offseason. The player option is replaced with the first year of the extension.
Jokic is eligible now to sign a three-year, $206 million extension but has delayed talks until next summer, sources confirmed to ESPN. By waiting another year, he would then be eligible to add a fourth year and additional $87 million. Like Antetokounmpo, Jokic has a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28.
Curry, meanwhile, does not have a player option in 2027-28 and could become a free agent for just the second time in his career. Because of the Over 38 rule, he can extend for no more than two years and $136.7 million. Curry, Jimmy Butler III and Draymond Green all can be free agents in the 2027 offseason.
Other All-Stars that are extension-eligible and could be a free agent in 2027 include Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard.
Which players are eligible for 2026 rookie extensions?
Victor Wembanyama headlines the 2023 rookie class eligible to sign extensions.
Starting in the 2026 offseason, Wembanyama will be eligible to sign a five-year, $271 million rookie extension, the first year of which would start in 2027-28. If Wembanyama is named MVP, DPOY or to one of the three All-NBA teams in 2026-27, the extension would increase to $326 million. Because he was ineligible for league honors in 2024-25, Wembanyama will not command 30% of the salary cap in Year 1 of the extension, even if the criteria is reached this season.
Other notable rookie extension candidates include Ausar Thompson, Amen Thompson, Brandin Podziemski, Brandon Miller, Cason Wallace and Dereck Lively II.
Will more teams have cap space?
From 2013-14 to 2019-20, the league went through a period with an average of 17 teams per year with cap space. Since then, the average has decreased to 5.1 teams.
Teams benefited from the 2016 salary cap spike and extension rules that were not favorable to players. Since the 2019-20 season, however, two things have changed.
Because of COVID-19, the salary cap remained flat in 2020-21 and then increased only 3% the following season. Then after two consecutive years of increasing 10%, the cap grew just 3.4% in 2024-25.
A total of 104 players have signed extensions since 2020-21. For comparison, 41 veterans signed extensions from 2011-12 to 2019-20.
The increase in extensions and lack of growth in the salary cap resulted in three teams (Brooklyn, Memphis and Milwaukee) with room this offseason, the fewest amount in the last 13 seasons.
The Nets elected to use most of their room to trade for Michael Porter Jr. Memphis renegotiated and then extended the contract of Jaren Jackson Jr. The Bucks were not a team originally projected to have cap space until they waived and then stretched the $113 million owed to Damian Lillard.
Due to the salary cap increasing 10% this year, 7% in 2026-27 and a projected fewer number of veteran extensions this year (43% of the players eligible to sign extensions reside on teams with room), cap space is, once again, a resource teams will have available.
Starting next offseason, ESPN is projecting at least 10 teams — Brooklyn, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland, Utah and Washington — to have significant cap space.
What owed first-round picks should we be tracking?
The New Orleans raised eyebrows among team executives on draft night. The bewilderment was not because the Pelicans moved up 10 spots to draft center Derik Queen, but rather the cost they paid to do so.
New Orleans will now send the more favorable of their own first or Milwaukee’s to Atlanta. ESPN BET gives the Pelicans the third-worst odds to win the Western Conference, and Milwaukee as the last play-in team in the Eastern Conference.
The Pelicans and Bucks’ first-rounders are not the only valuable picks that could exchange hands.
From the Desmond Bane trade, Memphis will receive the least favorable first of Phoenix or Washington (if 1-8). Phoenix has revamped their roster and gotten younger, trading Kevin Durant to Houston for a package of players that included Jalen Green and lottery pick Khaman Maluach. They also waived and stretched Bradley Beal.
But the defending champs could have the most first-round picks. The Thunder will receive a first from Houston (if 5-30), LA Clippers (unprotected), Philadelphia (if 4-30) and Utah (if 9-30).
More potential firsts that could change hands:
Oklahoma City to Washington
Orlando to Charlotte
Portland to Chicago (if 15-30)
Washington to New York (if 9-30)
Should we expect Boston and Indiana to be a contender again?
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The Celtics and Pacers are the symbol of how quick things change in the NBA.
A year ago, Jayson Tatum signed the largest contract in NBA history and Boston was entering the regular season ready to defend their championship. Then Tatum tore his right Achilles in the second round of the playoffs. A month later, Boston began deconstructing their championship roster, trading starters Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis.
The cost cutting trades saw Boston reduce their payroll from $540 to $239 million.
Looking ahead to next offseason, Boston will return a roster that features a healthy Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser. More importantly, Boston has their own first-round pick available and the financial flexibility to add in free agency or via trade. They also have the $27.7 million expiring contract of Anferenee Simons to use in a trade to help fortify their frontcourt.
As for the Pacers, they were three quarters from being declared the prohibitive favorite in the Eastern Conference this season. Then Tyrese Haliburton tore his right Achilles in Game 7 of the Finals, and Myles Turner signed with Milwaukee.
The good news is that when Haliburton returns ahead of 2026-27, Indiana has 13 players on the current roster under contract, including Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and TJ McConnell. And, like the Celtics, the Pacers have their own 2026 first.
Is there a free agency trend we should pay attention to?
An increase in qualifying offers. Signing a restricted free agent with cap space or an exception has been dormant. The last two players to receive one was Deandre Ayton in 2022 and Matisse Thybulle a year later. The Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers eventually matched both.
That could change next offseason, largely because 10 teams project to have cap space ahead of an average 2027 unrestricted free agent class.
The one date to circle that alters how many restricted free agents could be available is Oct. 20, the eve of the regular season. That is the last day that players selected in the first round of the 2022 draft can extend their contract. In the past two Octobers, 14 players extended on the last day.
This year, 14 notable players are eligible; Dyson Daniels, Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason, Benedict Mathurin, Nikola Jokic, Mark Williams, Shaedon Sharpe, Keegan Murray, Jeremy Sochan, Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler.
Who are some of the top draft prospects for next June?
NBA teams are excited for the 2026 draft class, creating an interesting subtext for rebuilding and tanking teams. Coupled with the perception that the 2027 draft is much weaker, there will be a lot at stake come lottery time in the spring.
The headliners of the 2026 class are Kansas guard Darryn Peterson (ESPN’s current No. 1 ranked prospect) and BYU wing A.J. Dybantsa, who NBA teams regard as the two strongest contenders at the top. I’d handicap Peterson as the slight frontrunner, as he’s considered one of the most dynamic scoring guard prospects to enter the college ranks in some time, and built momentum with a strong high school senior season.
NBA teams I’ve spoken with view Peterson and Dybantsa as a real debate at this stage. Both players will have more to prove as one-and-done freshmen, creating a major storyline entering the fall.
Those two are closely followed by Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Tennessee’s Nate Ament, two forwards who also offer significant long-term upside and round out a strong top four. The depth of this class will need time to take shape, but there are a number of other intriguing names currently projecting in the lottery, including Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr., New Zealand Breakers forward Karim Lopez and Kentucky big man Jayden Quaintance. There will be plenty to watch for on the draft front during this cycle. — Jeremy Woo
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